Path: Top

Analisis Laporan Keuangan sebagai Alat Prediksi Kebangkrutan Bank.

Jurnal Ekonomi, volume 9, nomor 1, Januari 2005.
Journal from JIPTUNMERPP / 2008-01-09 09:44:54
Oleh : Eni Lisetyati, Faculty_of_Economics_-_Merdeka_University_Malang (jurnalekonomi-feunmer@yahoo.com)
Dibuat : 2005-01-01, dengan file

Keyword : Bankcruptcy/failure, logistic regression, financial ratio, prediction power, estimation sample, validation/hold-out sample.

This study is written to know the use of financial statements analysis and therefore to predict bank bankrupty in Indonesia. This prediction is made in order to see whether a certain financial ratio in some bankrupt banks is different from those which are not bankcrupt; this also to find the financial ratio of bankcrupt bank from year to year is changed significantly. Also, this study tries to know certain financial ratio predicts bank bankcrupty. The variable used in this study is 11 financial ratio from CAMEL criteria that selected siginificant ratio based on former studies and in accordance with the limited data in financial statements of banks that published during the year 1993-1997. There are 161 banks selected for this study. In consist of 9 bankcrupt banks and 60 not benakcrupt bank that used as estimation sample and 32 bankcrupt bank and 60 not bankcrupt bank used as validation sample. The result of this study shows that operating expense per operating income, net income per total assets, and loan per saving significantly different since 4 years before bankcrupty, while loan per total equity shows significanly different since 3 years before bankcrupty. Ratio net interest expense per net interest expense plus non interest expense shows significantly different 1 year before bankcrupty. The other findings is that the financial ratio of the bankcrupt banks from year to year has change but notsignificant. Themultivariate test (logistic regression) is used to know hor far financial ratio chosen by backward stepwise (cinditional) procedure together is able to predict correctly which banks be bankcrupt. The result is that prediction power for estimation sample reaches to 90,58% correct with the point of cut-off is 0.50 and prediction power to validation sample produce only 67,39% correct with the same cut-off point.

Deskripsi Alternatif :

This study is written to know the use of financial statements analysis and therefore to predict bank bankrupty in Indonesia. This prediction is made in order to see whether a certain financial ratio in some bankrupt banks is different from those which are not bankcrupt; this also to find the financial ratio of bankcrupt bank from year to year is changed significantly. Also, this study tries to know certain financial ratio predicts bank bankcrupty. The variable used in this study is 11 financial ratio from CAMEL criteria that selected siginificant ratio based on former studies and in accordance with the limited data in financial statements of banks that published during the year 1993-1997. There are 161 banks selected for this study. In consist of 9 bankcrupt banks and 60 not benakcrupt bank that used as estimation sample and 32 bankcrupt bank and 60 not bankcrupt bank used as validation sample. The result of this study shows that operating expense per operating income, net income per total assets, and loan per saving significantly different since 4 years before bankcrupty, while loan per total equity shows significanly different since 3 years before bankcrupty. Ratio net interest expense per net interest expense plus non interest expense shows significantly different 1 year before bankcrupty. The other findings is that the financial ratio of the bankcrupt banks from year to year has change but notsignificant. Themultivariate test (logistic regression) is used to know hor far financial ratio chosen by backward stepwise (cinditional) procedure together is able to predict correctly which banks be bankcrupt. The result is that prediction power for estimation sample reaches to 90,58% correct with the point of cut-off is 0.50 and prediction power to validation sample produce only 67,39% correct with the same cut-off point.


Beri Komentar ?#(0) | Bookmark

PropertiNilai Properti
ID PublisherJIPTUNMERPP
OrganisasiF
Nama KontakDra. Wiwik Supriyanti, SS
AlamatJl. Terusan Halimun 11 B
KotaMalang
DaerahJawa Timur
NegaraIndonesia
Telepon0341-563504
Fax0341-563504
E-mail Administratorperpus@unmer.ac.id
E-mail CKOwsupriyanti@yahoo.com

Print ...

Kontributor...

  • Editor: